For the past 10 to 15 years, there has been an assumption that the green transition was inevitable, however, recent events have challenged that narrative.

While the perspective served a purpose and helped to rally growth, it also may have obscured the importance of public policy.

Industry leaders have indeed always pushed for supportive policy, but there has also simultaneously been a prevailing narrative of inevitability: that nothing could stop the falling costs and rising demand of renewables, electric vehicles, and clean technologies. But after recent events, that narrative is now in question and instead we are faced with a reminder that policy and regulation still matter deeply, not just to speed up the transition, but also to prevent it from reversing. Recent events have highlighted this reality:

• The EPA has proposed a repeal of the GHG Endangerment Finding: Written in 2009, it originally focused on vehicles but has since become the basis for all emissions mandates in the US. Repealing it could mean the federal government loses its core mechanism for controlling emissions.

• The recently passed OBBBA will phase out clean energy tax credits (45Y & 48E) after 2027, and has introduced new taxes that will damage the economics of renewables. This could reduce 2035 wind capacity by up to 25 GW and solar by almost 175 GW.

• The Treasury Department is also aiming to redefine the definition of “begun construction" for renewable energy projects: Previously, the threshold was spending 5% of project costs. Treasury now aims to require substantial construction. As developers lose eligibility for IRA tax credits, this could further jeopardize growth in renewables.

These are not isolated setbacks but instead signs that the transition is still quite fragile. The core fight now is about policy and regulation. Capital will only flow at scale when there is regulatory certainty and long-term alignment.

Admitting that the clean energy transition is not yet self-sustaining is not a weakness; it is strategic clarity.